Forecasts in the hotel industry and accuracy of the corporate travel index survey

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Title: Forecasts in the hotel industry and accuracy of the corporate travel index survey
Author: Pulkkinen, Maria H.
Abstract: This study looks at predicted and actual hotel rates for 1992 from the Corporate Travel Index. The Corporate Travel Index survey, which is conducted annually by Corporate Travel Magazine in conjunction with Rochester Institute of Technology, is analyzed from an accuracy stand point. Forecasts in the hotel industry are important to many people. Business people and meeting planners must somehow be able to predict the coming hotel rates. Among other forecasts in the industry, Corporate Travel Index is helpful to use when setting travel policies and spending guidelines for the corning year. The Corporate Travel Index asked for predicted rates in the 1992 survey and in the 1993 survey the actual rates were asked for. This study identifies the gaps between predicted and actual rates. Differences are calculated and analyzed in Excel 4.0 and SPSS. In order to see how significant the differences are and to decide if the Corporate Travel Index survey can be considered as accurate several t- tests were run in Minitab 8.0 between the predicted and actual corporate rates. It can be concluded from the results of the statistical analysis that there is no significant differences (10% or less) between the two rates. Therefore, it is concluded that the Corporate Travel Index can be considered as an accurate forecasting tool in the hotel industry.
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Date: 1993

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