Lake Ontario supply modeling and forecasting

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Title: Lake Ontario supply modeling and forecasting
Author: Genter, Joseph
Abstract: Lake Ontario's outflow and level have many effects on surrounding communities and down stream populations in northeastern United States. Since many people and industries rely on Lake Ontario for recreation, power generation, and navigation, to name a few, significant effort has focused on forecasting the water levels and water supplies. This analysis concentrates on forecasting the water supply into Lake Ontario. Independent time series models were developed for (1) Lake Ontario's supply from Lake Erie and for (2) the remaining "local" supply, also termed net basin supply, over the period from 1900 through 1992. These two models were combined to produce total supply predictions for Lake Ontario. In comparison, this model performed slightly better than another time series model based solely on past values of the Lake's total supply.
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Date: 1998-05-07

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